Quote:
Originally Posted by JON67
Most data shows that eliminating the human factor from driving will both improve traffic flow, and drastically reduce collision fatalities. Unforseen emergencies aside, most accidents happen because of bad human driving. computers will eliminate this. computers are predictable. humans aren't. Insurance rates should also plummet.
They are estimating that by 2030 all cargo will be distributed by driverless trucks. I think the driverless car debate is moot though. my belief is in the future most people will opt to use a car service like Uber, eliminating the need for a car, license, insurance any all the other expenses needed. at least in more urban areas.
I am already starting to see this with my kids' generation. my son is 18 and expressed zero interest in driving. and even now, anytime I bring up him getting a car. he gets super anxious thinking about the expense. He says it is not worth it to him.
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For some reason, this thread popped in my head this morning and for almost the whole ride to work, I thought about the + and - affects it can/will have.
Whether we like it or not, accidents will be
greatly reduced. Drunk driving alone is one of the nation's biggest automotive killers... now you can get as drunk as you want, just stammer the word "home" and your car will take you there while you pass out. The other biggie? Distracted driving. Take away all the idiots we ***** about and take them out of the equation and we all make to our work/home safely.
That said, there will be accidents, and there will be deaths. Can't be prevented, but it will likely be more like the airlines... they won't happen often, but when they do, they'll be bad, might involve a lot of people, and will probably make the news. +/-35,000 people die in auto accidents each year, what if that number is reduced by 2/3? Would we consider these cars "safe" or will we still call them "unsafe" even though deaths would be reduced? *I'm assuming all cars are autodrive, infrastructure is in place, and has been "working" for a few years.
What about hackers? What if someone hacked into "the system" and took over cars to use them to kill pedestrians (like we've recently seen with terrorists)? Or to cause huge pileups/deaths, or sent cars speeding over cliffs or bridges for their own enjoyment?
What would this do to our economy?
I can't imagine that many jobs would be "added." The cars would be just like we have now, maybe a few more tech and infrastructure jobs, but what about after that? Also, we may find that new car sales could have a serious drop as I'm assuming there would be a significant drop in accidents, which will drop the number of totaled cars... so no need to buy new cars if they're not getting totaled?
Negative impacts? Obviously, truck drivers. The transport industry in the US employs almost 9 million people, with +/-3.5 million being actual drivers. If trucks are automated, where are those jobs going to go?
Lets say accidents are reduced by 2/3, or even less... much fewer new cars will be sold (from cars not getting wrecked) body shops will go out of business with no work to do, parts suppliers... etc.
That leads to the next issue, if it's mandatory to own an autocar... it will also be likely it can't be modified, or modified much... this could kill the aftermarket industry, which I believe currently makes up billions? in sales overall. That's sales people, suppliers, etc...
Will old cars be "illegal"? That could also kill an entire industry that employs a ****load of people. Restoration shops, parts houses and suppliers...
For new cars, if they're all "autodrive" why do we need a "choice"? Will there be one standard car, truck, SUV? We literally have hundreds of cars to choose from now, but if you can't drive it... just ride in it, what does it matter what it is??? Will this put all but a couple of mfgs out of business? Will they all merge to make a "people's car" - Yea, I went there...
Also, if all cars drive the same, we all know "that guy" that shifts from R to D while still rolling backwards, brakes or accelerates too hard... all the time... with the computer telling the car how to run, it's also a correct assumption that cars would need fewer repairs (assuming the autodrive systems function as designed)?
The economic ripple affect could potentially be devastating for the US, but no one has addressed that aspect?
We've all seen the negative impact just a slow year from the auto mfgs can cause...
Will something else take over?
Does anyone else ever think of this crap?